Causality detection: Difference between revisions

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The determination of a causal interaction between fluctuating variables in a complex system, such as a fusion-grade plasma, is not straightforward.

Definition of causality

To start with, it is not even easy to define what causality means exactly. [1][2] In philosophy, causality typically refers to a relation between two events X and Y such that:

  • if Y occurs, then X will occur; or
  • if X occurs, then Y must have occured.

Thus, causality typically involves at least a temporal delay between the two events.

In the context of data analysis, it is more productive to adopt Wiener's 'quantifiable causality'. [3] It states:

  • if we can predict X better by using the past information from Y than without it, then we call Y causal to X.

Analysis techniques

Several techniques have been elaborated to quantify this statement on the basis of measured time series. [4]

Recently, a specific technique taken from Information Theory (the 'Transfer Entropy')[5] was applied succesfully to fluctuation data from fusion devices. [6]

References

  1. Wikipedia:Causality
  2. Wikipedia:Causality_(physics)
  3. N. Wiener. The theory of prediction. Modern Mathematics for Engineers, Mc-Graw Hill, New York, 1956
  4. K. Hlaváková-Schindler, M. Palus, M. Vejmelka, and J. Bhattacharya. Causality detection based on information-theoretic approaches in time series analysis, Phys. Reports, 441(1):1, 2007
  5. T. Schreiber, Measuring information transfer, Phys. Rev. Lett., 85(2):461, 2000
  6. B.Ph. van Milligen, G. Birkenmeier, M. Ramisch, T. Estrada, C. Hidalgo, and A. Alonso, Causality detection and turbulence in fusion plasmas, Nucl. Fusion 54 (2014), 023011